Enrolment projections overview – Victorian federal redistribution

The AEC has been informed by the ABS that there was an error in the initial enrolment projections supplied for use in the redistribution of Victoria.

The ABS has provided the AEC with revised enrolment projections data. This revised enrolment projection data is available on this website.

These revisions do not impact Victoria’s entitlement to 38 electoral divisions at the next general election or the projection time for this redistribution.

Receipt of the new data will not affect the ability of the Redistribution Committee to develop its proposed electoral division boundaries and release its proposed redistributions in accordance with the current indicative timeframe (the second quarter of this year).

This enrolment data has been prepared for the information of persons and organisations interested in the redistribution of federal electoral divisions in Victoria.

What enrolment data is supplied?

For the purposes of the redistribution, the AEC has made available:

  • enrolment in Victoria as at Wednesday 9 August 2023, the day on which the redistribution commenced
  • projected enrolment in Victoria at Monday 17 April 2028

Enrolment as at Wednesday 9 August 2023 is supplied as these figures were used for the Electoral Commissioner's determination of the redistribution quota under section 65 of Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (the Electoral Act). In making a proposed redistribution, the Redistribution Committee and the augmented Electoral Commission are bound by the Electoral Act to ensure that the number of electors in each proposed federal electoral division does not deviate by more than 10 per cent above or below the redistribution quota. The redistribution quota for Victoria was determined by the Electoral Commissioner to be 116,894 as at Wednesday 9 August 2023.

Projected enrolment at Monday 17 April 2028 is supplied because, as far as practicable, the Redistribution Committee and the augmented Electoral Commission are required to ensure that the number of electors enrolled in each federal electoral division at Monday 17 April 2028 (the projection time) will not deviate by more than 3.5 per cent above or below the projected enrolment quota.

A growth (%) figure is also provided. This is the estimated growth rate for the period Wednesday 9 August 2023 to Monday 17 April 2028. The growth rate shown for each SA1 is calculated by subtracting the actual enrolment from the projected enrolment, then dividing by the actual enrolment. The result is expressed as a percentage.

The following information is provided for each federal electoral division in Victoria:

  • the name of each SA2 in the federal electoral division,
  • the identifier number of each SA1 or part SA1 in the federal electoral division,
  • the two sets of enrolment figures and the growth rates applicable to each SA1, part SA1 and SA2 and for each existing federal electoral division, and
  • total enrolment for the federal electoral division.

How are projected enrolment figures calculated?

Following a recommendation by the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters (JSCEM) that the AEC and the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) work together on enrolment projections, the ABS has supplied enrolment projections to the AEC using AEC enrolment data as the base. The ABS has used a cohort-component method to project the enrolment of each SA1. The methodology is detailed in the paper included with the projected enrolment.

Why are enrolment figures supplied at the SA1 level?

Enrolment figures are provided at the SA1 level, as this level is the smallest commonly used geographic building block. The SA1 figures are aggregated to show the totals for SA2s, which are comprised of a number of SA1s. Being somewhat larger than SA1s, SA2s may be more manageable for those who are interested in less detailed analysis.

The figures shown are broken down according to electoral division. Where a SA1 or SA2 crosses divisional boundaries, the SA1 or SA2 concerned will be listed in each electoral division in which electors are enrolled. Only those electors resident in that electoral division are included in the figures for such SA1s or SA2s.

How is the enrolment data provided?

Data is provided in the following files:

These files include the revised enrolment projections data provided by the ABS.

The SA1s and SA2s used for this redistribution are those which applied at the 2021 Census of Population and Housing.

Each file contains:

  • electoral division name;
  • SA2 name;
  • SA1 number;
  • enrolment as at Wednesday 9 August 2023;
  • projected enrolment as at Monday 17 April 2028.

If technical difficulties are experienced in accessing this data, please contact the Victorian Redistribution Secretariat.

Spatial data and maps

The existing federal boundaries for Victoria are provided in a spatial format.

You will need GIS software to view and manipulate spatial data; however TAB files have been provided for those who do not have GIS software.

Spatial data and the maps of federal electoral divisions in Victoria are available on the AEC maps and spatial data page.

Updated: 13 September 2023